TIPS: Tempering Inflation's Potential Surprises
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) often get a bad rap. At first glance, the relative simplicity of nominal Treasury bonds might make them the obvious choice for a fixed income investor.
After all, the decision between a nominal Treasury bond yielding i% and a TIPS bond yielding r% — with inflation expected to be (i - r)% over the bond’s life — seems to be straightforward. So what difference does it really make?
For the sake of argument, assume that realized inflation equals expected inflation. Even in this case, the path of coupon payments would look very different. Nominal Treasuries pay a fixed coupon semi-annually. TIPS, however, provide variable payments, with coupons adjusted based on changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)1. For investors facing liabilities that rise with inflation, TIPS offer a hedging advantage that nominal bonds can’t replicate.
It gets especially interesting when realized inflation differs from expectations.
2020-2021: Inflation Surprises Shift the Balance
The aftermath of the COVID-19 economic recovery brought a dramatic inflationary surge that few anticipated. At the end of 2020, the Cleveland Fed’s one-year inflation expectation estimate stood at an unassuming 1.65%. However, CPI soared by 7% (seasonally adjusted) over the following year — a massive 5% surprise.
Yet even as inflation surged, markets clung to the narrative of “transitory” inflation. The Fed’s commitment to low rates translated to both real and nominal bond yields remaining relatively flat throughout 2021. But TIPS had a card up their sleeve. The price adjustment tied to higher realized inflation boosted their performance, leading TIPS to outperform nominal Treasuries with similar maturities.
This dynamic is evident in Figure 1, which illustrates cumulative total returns from mid-2020 through the end of 2021. While the Bloomberg US Treasury 7-10yr Index declined, the Bloomberg US Government-Linked 7-10yr Index, which includes TIPS, rose approximately 10%.
Figure 1: TIPS Outperform Amid 2020-2021 Inflationary Surge
When Inflation Surprises, TIPS Shine
The connection between inflation surprises and TIPS outperformance is also clear in Figure 2, which tracks rolling one-year total returns of TIPS versus nominal Treasuries alongside the US Citi Inflation Surprise Index. Typically, when inflation surprises on the upside, TIPS tend to outperform Treasuries. On the flip side, in periods with little or no inflation surprises, performance between the two tends to be very similar.
Figure 2: TIPS Outperformance Tracks Inflation Surprises in H2 2020-2021
TIPS in 2022 and Beyond
While TIPS outperformed in the back half of 2020 and into 2021, they weren’t immune to the bond market sell-off of 2022, during which the Treasury index fell roughly -15% and the TIPS index dropped by around -14%. A slim 1% outperformance isn’t nothing, but it’s also not something to write home about.
Why the similar results? By 2022, both markets and the Fed recognized that inflation wasn’t transitory and significant interest rate hikes would be needed to rein in inflation, which drove nominal yields sharply higher. However, breakeven inflation remained relatively contained,2 reflecting confidence in the Fed’s ability to restore price stability. Consequently, rising nominal yields translated into rising real yields3. Since TIPS and nominal Treasuries shared comparable duration profiles, both indices had similar performance.
Tipping the Scales of Inflation Hedging
While TIPS exposure isn’t a panacea for inflation hedging, they serve as a powerful complement to a broader strategy, delivering results when conditions align with their unique benefits. When inflation takes an unexpected turn, TIPS can deliver returns that outshine traditional Treasuries, providing a key edge in volatile environments. By understanding their role and limitations, investors can position TIPS as a strategic tool to capture upside opportunities while effectively navigating inflation risks.
1 Coupons are paid based on the adjusted face value Ft=F0(Pt/P0), where Ft
is the face value at time t and Pt
is the CPI at time t.
Modifying the quasi-real bond proposal from Eagle and Domian (Eagle, D. M., & Domian, D. L. (1995). Quasi-real bonds: inflation-indexing that retains the government’s hedge against aggregate-supply shocks. Applied Economics Letters, 2(12), 487–490. https://doi.org/10.1080/135048595356943), the alternative formula FtQ=F0(Pt/P0)/(1+g)t , where g
is the projected inflation rate through the horizon (which could be obtained from TIPS of similar maturity), would only adjust the face value for price level surprises. If the price level grows consistent with initial expectations, then the coupon structure would mimic nominal bonds. It would permanently adjust in reaction to price level shocks.
2 It is not the case that shorter-term breakeven inflation remained contained.
3 This behavior is also consistent with the Taylor principle, which says that central banks should raise policy rates more than proportionally to inflation to maintain stability.
