2025 Outlook
In This Outlook
Overview
2024 marked the Year of the Dragon, a symbol of power and prosperity. True to its name, financial markets exceeded expectations, with risk assets surging and stocks hitting multiple record highs.
As we prepare to ring in the new year—the Year of the Snake, known for transformation and adaptability—will last year’s trends continue to dominate?
- Economic Outlook: Post-COVID inflation remains a key trend, with the Federal Reserve expecting core inflation to ease by 2025 but not reach its 2% target until 2026. The US economy showed strong GDP growth in 2024, but growth is expected to slow in 2025. Eurozone and Japanese economies struggled in 2024 but may see modest improvements in 2025.
- Market Outlook: Following strong 2024 returns, risk asset valuations are historically extended with US large-cap stocks trading at around 22x forward earnings. The valuation of stocks relative to bonds is similarly unattractive. The outlook for 2025 includes modest returns and increased volatility, with US earnings growth expected to broaden out beyond Big Tech. Internationally, the outlook for stocks remains mixed despite undemanding valuations and a moderate earnings growth outlook.
- Risk Outlook: The incoming US administration and existing downside risks present uncertainties. Key concerns include policy risks from Trump's second term, such as tariffs and immigration restrictions disrupting trade and labor markets and aggressive fiscal policies exacerbating the fiscal deficit and inflation. Geopolitical tensions and China's slowing growth, coupled with its pivot toward a tech-driven economy, could further impact global markets.